Donald Trump heads to New Hampshire after a resounding victory in Iowa, and a new poll published on Wednesday showed a commanding lead for the former president in the Granite State. However, a deeper dive into the numbers suggests it may not be a cakewalk for Trump.
Commanding Lead: Overall, 50% of the respondents picked Trump when asked about the top three contenders on the New Hampshire Republican primaries ballot they would lean toward, as per the Suffolk University poll conducted in association with the Boston Globe and NBC-10.
The results were based on opinion polls conducted on Monday and Tuesday, reflecting a two-day rolling average of 500 likely voters.
Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley stood second, chosen by 34% of the respondents. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was a distant third, backed by merely 5% of the respondents. Undecided voters accounted for 6%, and about 3% said they would choose someone else.
Trump garnered more votes than either of the other two across genders, regions of the state, education levels, and age groups.
DeSantis was the most favored second choice, with 30% picking him compared to 10% who chose Haley. Trump, the most preferred candidate, ranked down as the second choice, with only 7% backing him. The undecided category took a lion’s share of votes in this category.
Also working in Trump’s favor is the number of respondents unlikely to change their choices before the Republican primary. Those saying they were not very likely or not at all likely made up 87% of the voters surveyed.
When those who chose Haley were asked whether it was a vote for her or against Trump, 54% said it was for Haley, while 37% said it was a vote against Trump.
Twist in the Tale: One aspect that could cause worries for Trump’s campaign team is the lead Haley had over Trump among undeclared voters. Voters who did not identify themselves as Republicans overwhelmingly preferred Haley over Trump by a margin of 44% to 38%. Sixty-one percent of those identifying themselves as Republicans favored Trump, compared to 51% who backed Haley.
The state of New Hampshire allows undeclared voters to take part in the primaries. Given President Joe Biden’s name does not feature on the state’s Democratic primary ballot, these voters could significantly impact the GOP primary results.
Out of the sample size of 500, eight said they already voted, with three of them stating they voted for Haley, as opposed to two for Trump.
“Haley’s had a tough week: underperforming in Iowa, trying to answer Trump’s attacks on her positions on Social Security and immigration, and the recent [Vivek] Ramaswamy endorsement of Trump helping him with younger GOP voters,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, as reported by the Boston Globe.
“Still, there is time to at least close the gap with undecided voters or even with some Trump voters and pull Trump below 50.”
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