Tesla, Inc. TSLA is anticipated to unveil its fourth-quarter delivery data on Tuesday ahead of the market opening, a crucial metric influencing the forthcoming earnings release in late January.
What Analysts Predict: Wall Street analysts, as per a Tesla-compiled consensus estimate, project 480,500 units for the fourth quarter, notes Future Fund co-founder Gary Black. Tesla holds the second-largest position in Black’s Future Active ETF FFND.
Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives, in a late-December preview, suggested that fourth-quarter deliveries might surpass the 480,000-unit range. He pointed to robust weekly insured registration data in China for Tesla EVs, reaching 18,500 units by December 24, helping the company surpass its previous quarterly record.
Troy Teslike, a notable Tesla predictor on X, predicts production and delivery numbers at 505,794 and 479,000 units, respectively.
To achieve Tesla’s previously stated annual delivery target, the company needs to record deliveries of 475,926 units for the fourth quarter.
On Monday, Chinese EV companies reported robust deliveries for December and the fourth quarter. Warren Buffett-backed BYD Co. Ltd. BYDDY BYDDF reported fourth-quarter battery EV sales of 526,409 units, potentially challenging Tesla’s global EV dominance.
Significance: Tesla’s numerous price cuts in the first half of 2023 impacted its core auto margins, leading to a year-long decline. The company reported earnings and revenue misses for Q3 due to inelastic demand and margin erosion.
The fourth-quarter delivery numbers may shed light on the impact of the Cybertruck launch in late November. Gary Black’s poll on X indicated that 42.3% of respondents expect Tesla to provide 2024 delivery guidance of 2.3 million or more.
Tesla continued its incentives in China, signaling potential demand concerns. In the U.S., starting January 1, 2024, the Model 3 rear-wheel drive and long-range vehicles lost eligibility for the $7,500 EV subsidy, affecting pricing dynamics. Black anticipates Tesla to adjust prices, potentially reducing Model 3 RWD and LR prices while increasing Model 3 Performance and all Model Y trims.
Deepwater Asset Management’s Gene Munster anticipates Tesla to maintain its U.S. EV market share despite increasing competition.
Tesla shares ended Friday’s session down 1.86% to $248.48, according to Benzinga Pro data. It ended 2023 with a gain of 101.72%.
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